Sunday, May 25, 2008
Problem solving
When I was younger and penniless, I told myself that I want to earn enough money so that I can say -
Any problem that can be solved by money is not a problem
In this complicated world that we live in, there are countless problems that we face everyday. When we're kids, we have problems like school (although some may not see it as a problem like I do). It was a constant struggle with homework deadlines, last minute studying for exams and probably some teenage angst. We want to finish school as soon as possible and say sayonara to the boring teachers. Stepping into the working world, we face another set of problems. Money. Handphone bills, internet bills, utilities bills, car loans, mortgage loans, etc. Amid high inflation of 7.5% in Singapore (recorded last month), many people are struggling just trying to feed themselves and their families. I should be counting my blessings but I, too, am tightening my belt. I still have a wedding and a mortgage to pay for.
Problems, problems, everywhere. No wonder Singapore is one of the most unhappy countries around. I divide problems into two categories - one that can be solved with money and the other that can't. Problems that you still can solve with money shouldn't have to bother you (that much). For example, my small car accident earlier today. Assuming the worst case scenario which I can't get the old uncle to fork out my repair fees, I will have to fork out a couple of hundred bucks myself. Out of nothing but bad luck. Is that going to kill me? Probably not. Should I be sulking and be miserable because of this? Probably not. It certainly is a stupid nuisance but I ask myself which is worse? Losing two hundred bucks and be miserable over it, or losing two hundred bucks, getting over it and be happy.
There are real problems which we have no control over it in life. Like love (or the loss of it), illness, death. Your family and loved ones are the real deal. Materials like cars, bicycles and money are not. If we can still afford to get a problem out of the way using some money, why not? Just get it over with and be happy. Life carries on. Life is too short to be bothered with too many problems. Everyone has their own problems. There seems like never an end to problems. We should only let the real problems bother us, not those small and superficial problems.
How you think about a problem is more important than the problem itself - so always think positively
- Norman Vincent Peale, author of The Power of Positive Thinking
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You had a bad day
Wow, I still remember my password!
What a lousy day today. I was driving inside this car park, behind an old white Nissan. Suddenly, the Nissan stopped. Without switching on the hazard lights, it reversed. Ok, fine, next to me was a handicapped car lot, maybe the driver is a handicapped, I thought. Hence I started to reverse too, as it was obvious that I was blocking the lot. In a flash, bang! The Nissan hit the front of my car. What the F? Some of my car's paint was scrapped off and the hood seems a little out of place. The Nissan's driver was not a handicapped, he was some old uncle and obviously he had a problem with driving because when he tried to reverse into the handicapped lot again, he mounted the bloody kerb not once, not twice but thrice. Just my god damn bloody luck.
Well it seems like a bad day for driving, so I tried cycling. With petrol prices at record highs, it seems like a good idea to rely on good old leg power. Hence I bought a pair of new bikes yesterday, for Kris and myself. So this evening, we thought we will do some cycling, but no, the day won't pass without more nasty surprises. Kris' bicycle had a flat tyre. Why? I don't know why. It was barely a day since we bought it. I took it to the nearest petrol station to try to pump some air into it but no, the pump was spoilt today. Great luck. Just great.
So this week, I have to go and settle the car and the bicycle. Out of nothing. Just suay.
Good riddance to bad trash, 25th May 2008. You sucked.
21:50 Posted in Daily Discoveries | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
Sunday, December 03, 2006
So MAD!
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is less than or equal to the standard deviation.
For not knowing this, I lost 2 marks in today's exam. %$#@!
23:55 Posted in Random Nonsense | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
Saturday, December 02, 2006
Panic mode
Page vii of the Schweser study notes (Book 1) for the 2006 CFA Level I Exam says that if you start your studies late and decide to read every reading in detail, you will drive yourself crazy and will not enter the exam with the self-confidence that is required to pass.
How true!
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Saturday, November 25, 2006
Two Fathers
Terrence has two fathers and he sings a song about them.
Nice song.
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Friday, November 03, 2006
A popular phrase in China
救护车一响
一头猪白养
住上一次院
一年活白干
辛辛苦苦几十年
一病回到解放前
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Friday, September 01, 2006
There's something strange in the neighbourhood
You know that something is wrong in Singapore when
Michael Fay is jailed 4 months in jail, fined S$3,500 and given 6 lashes of the rattan for vandalism but a man was jailed for a mere 8 weeks for torturing a cat to death and another man was jailed just 3 months for the abuse of cats and kittens.
The police did nothing when a doctor got beaten by 6-8 punks but has time to harrass 'Mardi Gras girls', catch 'seditious' bloggers and investigate a peaceful and silent protest supporting 'mr brown'.
The MIW talked about "Staying Together, Moving Ahead" but Singaporeans living in dipilated HDB flats in opposition wards are constantly placed at the bottom of the HDB upgrading priority despite paying the same income tax and doing the same national service like other Singaporeans.
18 year old army boys are allowed to carry a M-16 (or SAR-21) but not allowed to watch R(A) movies.
15:24 Posted in Random Nonsense | Permalink | Comments (1) | Email this
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
Hush S'pore, you're too noisy
You know that Singaporeans have it too good when you see people writing in to the Straits Times complaining about rowdy kids, leaves blowers and aunties talking in dialect.
Straits Times
Hush S'pore, you're too noisy
I found the article, 'Drowned In Sound' (The Sunday Times, July 9), interesting.
I have been complaining about the noise in Marine Terrace often to my MP. First, there are many rowdy neighbours with rowdy children. For example, making noise late at night while waiting for the lift.
Also, one is rudely awaken by three to four grass cutters early in the morning, which unfortunately happens very often. Then there are the tree trimers who cut off branches mercilessly that it makes me wonder, why bother to have trees when they cannot even spread out their branches to give us shade.
You also have the leaves blowers. I feel that the old fashion way of sweeping leaves with brooms is more effective. Plus it does not generate diesel smoke or have a droning sound.
To add to that pollution, vehicle owners often leave their engines running while waiting for family members or girlfriends. The Land Transport Authority should issue some kind of deterrent against such drivers to protect the environment.
For many years I have to put up with all this as I live on a lower floor.
When I step out to visit a shopping mall, what do I hear? Music blaring. Should there not be some kind of guideline regarding the volume of music in public areas?
Shopping in Australia, for example, is a joy because you do not get all these extra noises.
Then on the bus you have the TV Mobile or two Ah Sohs talking in dialect on their mobile phones!
Even at the NTUC Fitness Health Club I have to bear the blaring sound of rap music which at times just rock my brain till I end up with a migraine. Competing with this loud music are members talking loudly in dialects.
I now go out with ear plugs which I have on standby in all my handbags. It cuts off the volume by about 30 per cent.
It is a pity that a day outing in this beautiful country can be ruined by too much noise.
Koh Geok Lin (Mdm)
My reply to Mdm Koh:
Dear Mdm Koh,
I couldn't agree with you more on your complaints.
Kids, as the two of us know, are really stupid noisy, although one shouldn’t fault them for behaving the way they do for it's only in their nature to be stupid noisy. If you really can’t stand kids being noisy while they're waiting for the lift at night, not even for a minute, what you can do is to rush out of your house and give them two tight slaps (one for yourself and one for me). It would be best if you can take out your kitchen knife and stab them repeatedly in the chest so as to prevent future occurrences of noisy kids. Of course, you face the possibility (certainty, if you didn’t finish off the parent as well) of going into jail but hey, the prison is a pretty quiet place, I’ve heard.
The grass cutters need to work early in the morning because they are probably foreign talents labourers who are not as privileged as you and me to be able to sleep at that time of the day. They also probably don’t write in to the newspapers to complain about going to a foreign country to work under the hot sun from morning to night while the foreign country’s citizens bemoaned about them making too much noise while they are sleeping, so it's really beneath our level to be complaining about them. What we can do is to keep pressuring our MPs (that's what MPs are for right?) to sack these grass cutters. Then we will have grass the height of humans to act as sound insulators. Especially since you're staying at a low floor because you can't afford don't want to pay a higher price for a higher unit.
The tree trimmers are probably a bunch of tree haters hence they make cutting tree branches a living. It is such a pity that the government hires a bunch of tree haters to trim trees so that we couldn’t have the branches spread out all the way and finally drop onto and crush some poor passerby. That would be so fun to see!
And of course, it’s more efficient to get those foreign labourers to clear the leaves with brooms, instead of powerful leaves blower machines. After all, they are supposed to be low cost and meant to be exploited by us right? Add to that idea by restricting all foreign maids to take buses on Sundays such that they can only walk! Then we will see fewer buses on the roads which translate into less diesel smoke and noise around us as well. I’m a genius!
The point which I agreed wholeheartedly with you is the one about the two ah sohs talking in dialect on their mobile phones in the bus. How do they even dare! People like you and me who speak English should be addressed Sir and Madam and thus allowed to talk on our mobile phones (in English of course) in the bus. People like those ah sohs who can only talk in dialect should not be allowed to own a mobile phone in the first place! How do they dare to pollute our ears with their low-class dialect conservations!
I think I am going to follow your cue and start wearing ear plugs. In fact, to prevent my eyes from getting polluted by those unsightly grass cutters, tree trimmers and dialact-talking ah sohs, I think I'm going to start wearing eye masks when going out.
It is truely a national disaster when a beautiful country like Singapore can be ruined by these inconsiderate people. Luckily for Singapore, there are still people like you, Madam Koh, who dares (and has the free time) to stand out and write letters to the Straits Times to bring to light these burning national issues. It's a pity the GE is just over, otherwise I'm sure these issues of noisy grass cutters and dialact-talking ah sohs will take top priority over those childish issues those politicians took up with instead.
The country needs you, Madam Koh! Will you be willing to stand for the next GE?
Regards,
Sir Joo
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Wednesday, July 05, 2006
World Cup Drama at Holland Village Coffeeshop: Part 2
After my own personal narration of that world cup drama at Holland Village, here is the public version as published in the Straits Times today.
The Straits Times
July 5, 2006
Fracas after crash in Holland Village
A Malaysian tourist caused a ruckus in Holland Village in the early hours of Sunday. Witnesses said that at about 1.30am, a Malaysian- registered car skidded and crashed into a cab along Lorong Mambong in Holland Village. The 48-year-old driver apparently got out of his car and exchanged some harsh words with the cabby.
He then got back into the vehicle, reversed and crashed into the cab another two times, causing the taxi to mount the kerb.
An angry group of people then tried to get the driver out of the car, banging their fists and smashing a plastic chair on it.
The man drove off with the mob following for some distance. Police nabbed him at the junction of Commonwealth Avenue and Ghim Moh Road. The unemployed man was arrested when he refused to give a breath specimen. He was released on bail on Sunday evening.
TRACY SUA
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Silent Nation
Based loosely on a true story
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Sunday, July 02, 2006
World Cup Drama at Holland Village Coffeeshop
No, this isn't about how Portugal knocked England out of the World Cup. The off-pitch action that happened to me during the match must be a hundred times more exciting than the match itself. Including the penalty shootout. This is super drama including smashing of beer bottles, ramming of cars and a crowd which almost turned into a mob.
In fact, I’m so glad to be writing this right now. Alive. I could be lying in a hospital right now with my head smashed by a beer bottle. Or knocked down by a car. I could be, *shudders*, gone from this world.
It was a Saturday night and England was facing Portugal in a World Cup quarterfinals. As my sweetie was away in London, I asked Feiyan out to watch the match at Holland Village. We went there late, and all the pubs were super full, but we finally got ourselves a seat at the Village coffeeshop around the corner.
And so it is, we sat there watching the match rather happily and peacefully. During half-time of normal period, two friends of Feiyan arrived and joined us. After the 90 minutes went by without a goal, some people were leaving. I could never understand why people only want to watch the 90 minutes and not the extra-time and penalty shootouts. Are these people hard-core Singapore Pools pundits who are only interested in the normal period full-time score? Anyway, that’s another story. Apparently, one of these people leaving was Feiyan’s ex-boss from his former job. And the ex-boss offered the four of us his table, which is just in front of the TV. Our original table was along the pavement, which offers a lot of legroom but a very skewed TV watching angle. The table offered was inside the coffeeshop, offering a great TV view but very little or no legroom at all. The coffeeshop was literally packed like sardines with the audience stacked shoulder to shoulder.
Anyway, we took up the offer and changed our table. So I sat down and tried to make myself comfortable as it was damn squeezed. This guy next to me tapped my shoulder and said the seat I’m sitting on belongs to a guy and he might be coming back. I noticed that there was still a half-full beer glass with a couple of beer bottles on the table in front of the seat and so I said I will move if the guy comes back. The guy, an uncle in his 50s, came back. So I shifted to the next chair. As the uncle sat down, he told me in Hokkien, “don’t mess with my chair”. I was a little taken aback at his “frankness” and I just said ok.
By this time, the first half of the extra time in the match was starting. I was so squeezed in my seat that my two tights were clamped together and yet the uncle’s shoulder and legs were pressed hard against mine. Yes, it was really so packed. I regretted moving to this table but our old table was already taken over by others. As the match goes on, the uncle was blabbering to me and Feiyan’s friend (who was next to me) about secret societies, faked secret societies and other bullshit that I was filtering out. I just took him to be a run-of-the-mill uncle who had a little too much to drink.
But he was getting aggressive. He began blabbering some other nonsense (which I had filtered out) to the coffeeshop auntie and the coffeeshop auntie entertained him a little by pretending to listen attentively. Then he started to get really aggressive and took out his Malaysian passport. He kept throwing his passport around the table and saying he wants to see the boss of the coffeeshop. I really sensed something was wrong then. The lady boss came and pretended to listen attentively to what the drunken uncle had to say and tried to pacify him. By then, I was feeling really threatened, sitting next to this crazy and drunk uncle. I thought I better move away at half-time. I told Feiyan that his ex-boss must have hated him very much and thus offered this table to us. No wonder they left at full-time of normal period! They must have known that this uncle is crazy! Bloody hell.
Back to the action, the lady boss did not manage to pacify the drunken uncle and the coffeeshop owner had to be activated. The owner tried shaking hands with the drunken uncle but the drunken uncle was pissed by now. He refused to make peace and said he don’t know who the owner is. The drunken uncle even picked up a bottle and sticks it hard into his glass, inverted. I think this meant a challenge and he was trying to provoke the owner. By then, I could really feel the tensions and madness from this drunken uncle. I couldn’t wait until half-time. My life was on the stake. This crazy uncle felt like he could smash me on the head anytime with his beer bottle. And so I told Feiyan, who is seated furthest from the uncle among the four of us, that we better move outside and watch the match, standing.
It was at this precise moment that things turned scary. The drunken uncle picked up the inverted bottle and smashed it onto the ground. Barely 10cm from my feet. I tried to flee but tables surrounded me and the only way out was blocked by the drunken uncle. He smashed a couple of bottles on the table and floor and I finally took the cue to run out as he ran out of ammunition (beer bottles). I was shaken. In fact, my legs were shaking as I stood outside the coffeeshop wondering what the hell just happened. The beer bottle could have hit my feet or worse, the drunken uncle could have smashed my skull with a bottle as he switched on his destructive mode.
The coffeeshop owner and a couple of helpers then dragged the drunken uncle outside of the coffeeshop. The owner shouted a few Hokkien expletives at the drunken uncle and challenged him to go somewhere else to settle the issue. And so the drunken uncle, the owner and a few other guys went in the direction of Crystal Jade. Of course, many more other kay poh audience followed, including Feiyan. I, on the other hand, went back to the seat to watch the beginning of the second half of extra-time. It was then that I realised I had a few cuts on my feet. Remember that the beer bottle was smashed 10cm away from my feet? And because I was wearing slippers, there were some cuts on my feet inflicted by the flying shards of glass. I can only curse my luck but at the same time, I was thankful that I’m still alive.
A few minutes into the second half of extra-time, the coffeeshop owner retuned back. Feiyan too. Knew from Feiyan that the drunken uncle was now lying in front of Delifrance, beaten up pacified by the owner. And also knew that the reason for the uncle being so pissed is that the coffeeshop auntie refused to serve the drunken uncle more beer as it was past the permitted time that the coffeeshop could serve beer. As the uncle’s Malaysian passport was still on the table when he was dragged out of the coffeeshop, Feiyan passed the passport to the lady boss who gave it back to the drunken uncle who was then already pacified by the owner. Feiyan did catch a glimpse of the uncle’s year of birth, which is 195X. Not that it’s important to me.
And so, we continued to watch the match, thinking that all was over. But we’re so wrong.
As the second half of extra-time drew down to what would be a stalemate, all eyes were glued to the TVs. And suddenly, there was a loud screeching car-braking noise and we all heard a loud bang. A black car had just rammed full speed onto the back of a taxi parked outside the coffeeshop. The coffeeshop crowd (except the taxi driver inside the taxi) apparently thought it was funny and shouted “GOAL!”
Wait a minute! The man in the black car was the drunken uncle! He’s back with a vengeance! As a crowd began to surround the two vehicles, the drunken uncle stepped out of the car and squatted outside for a couple of minutes. Nobody moved. All eyes were on the drunken uncle and his black car, instead of the soccer match. The drunken uncle went back into his black car and reversed his car. Then, BANG! He rammed into the poor taxi one more time. And, BANG! He smashed into the taxi for a third time, this time, pushing the taxi up the pavement, knocking down the tables and chairs on it as the crowd ran away. It was fortunate that no one was hurt. The crazy uncle could have rammed his car first time into the crowd that was standing outside the coffeeshop watching the match. Or the sitting crowd along the pavement. Or worse, drove straight into the coffeeshop like a terrorist bomber.
This time, the crowd decided that enough is enough and about 10 people surrounded his car, kicking and smashing the windows with chairs. It was like a mob! At this time, I sort of imagine that the drunken uncle will be dragged out of the car and torn apart by the mob, as I have often read in the newspapers as happened in some other unlawful countries. Luckily for the drunken uncle, he managed to drive away. As his car was driving away, people chased and threw chairs at the car. Even people inside the coffeeshop were throwing chairs! I saw a person who tried to throw a chair at the car but hit another person’s head instead. I was worried that another fight would start, there and then, but luckily, it didn’t.
A few guys had, by now, called the police. And a few had taken down the license number of the black car, which is a Malaysia registered car. At this point, the England-Portugal match was going into a penalty shootout.
Just as the first penalty was about to be taken by Portugal, the black car appeared again! This time, the drunken uncle drove straight past the coffeeshop, without stopping or ramming into any other car, as if to say, “fuck you and catch me if you can”.
Moments later, England was knocked out of the World Cup and the first police car finally arrived. An ambulance and two other police cars followed later. I wonder why is the ambulance there. For me, because I had cuts on my feet? Or for the poor guy whose head was hit by a flying chair not intended for him. Anyway, the ambulance left shortly without attending to anyone.
Just like England who is going home now, the crowd soon dispersed as there’s finally no more action, on-pitch or off-pitch.
I think I am very suay. But even more suay was the guy whose head was hit. Or the taxi driver whose taxi was rammed three times by the crazy uncle. The taxi had an equally unlucky number to boot. Plate number X444. Despite the cuts on my feet, I still have to count my blessings that I can still be here, typing away on my notebook. Perhaps there will be a silver lining out of all this mess as I’m going to buy 4-D tomorrrow!
P.S. Don’t worry about me, darling, I’m fine now. ;)
04:00 Posted in Random Nonsense | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
Saturday, July 01, 2006
Birthday Paradox
My local office has a headcount of 19. And in this group of 19 people, one of them shares the same birthday with me. Super coincidental? Nah. There's a probability of 38% of that happening actually.
The birthday "paradox" states that if there are 23 or more people in a room then there is a chance of more than 50% that at least two of them will have the same birthday. This is not a paradox in the sense of leading to a logical contradiction; it described as a paradox because mathematical truth contradicts naïve intuition. Most people estimate that the chance is much lower than 50%.
A group of 10 gives you a probability of 12%, 20 gives you 41%, 30 gives you 70% and 50 gives you a very high chance at 97%. I remembered back in university, one lecturer offers such a bet with the class which consists of more than 23 people. In the end, it turned out he lost, although I still think that at that point in time, the risk-reward ratio is good and favourable towards the lecturer. Afterall, he has odds at more at 50% of winning. But in life, as always, nothing is certain until it becomes fact.
P.S. This is worrying. I'm lazing at home with nothing inspiring to do except to calculate and plot charts of probabilities of two people having the same birthday in a group of N people on Excel. Anyway, here's the Excel chart. =D
For more on the birthday paradox and its probability computation, go to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_paradox
14:44 Posted in Daily Discoveries | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
Magical Thinking
Magical thinking is a term used by historians of religion to describe one kind of non-scientific causal reasoning. For example, someone may believe a shirt is lucky if he had won a bowling competition in it. He wil continue to wear the shirt to bowling competitions, and though he continues to win some and lose some, he will chalk up every win to his lucky shirt.
The same can be applied to my two rabbits. Everytime I took away the food bowl from them, they would start turning around in circles at very high speed. Initially I thought that they were excited because they knew food would be coming, but now I think that they associated the appearance of food with their turning around in circles. To put it simply, my rabbits believed that their "magical behaviour" or their turning in circles is the force creating the food.
Magical thinking can be found in most people actually. In the stock market, traders utilize trading strategies of unconfirmed hypotheses, rather than evaluating their historical performance using scientific methods. People are reluctant to change their beliefs, even when presented with evidence. Some traders might believe in the "effect" of red underwear while some refused to wear anything red (as red normally means a negative P/L). And strangely enough, most of the traders are not systematic in their approaches. "Gut feel" is still the most important element in their decisions. I call it luck sometimes.
For more of the phenomenon of magical thinking, go to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magical_thinking
13:35 Posted in Daily Discoveries | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
Tribute to my darling
This is for my poor darling, who is away alone on a business trip in the cold and faraway city of London.
I miss you and the food you always cook for me.
You don't just provide me food
For you are the nourishment of my soul
I know I'm no cool dude (or poet)
But you still like me as a whole
Thank you for all your love
I couldn't thank you more
I don't take you for granted
I will cherish you and more
For every day for all the days ... in my life
Thank you dear, I love you and I can't wait for you to be back.
P.S. Too much hawker food can be sickening.
23:15 Posted in For Her | Permalink | Comments (1) | Email this
Did You Know... ?
If you yelled for 8 years, 7 months and 6 days you would have produced enough sound energy to heat one cup of coffee.
(Hardly seems worth it.)
If you farted consistently for 6 years and 9 months, enough gas is produced to create the energy of an atomic bomb.
(Now that's more like it!)
The human heart creates enough pressure when it pumps out to the body to squirt blood 30 feet.
(O.M.G.!)
A pig's orgasm lasts 30 minutes.
(In my next life, I want to be a pig.)
A cockroach will live nine days without its head before it starves to death. (Creepy.)
(I'm still not over the pig.)
Banging your head against a wall uses 150 calories an hour.
(Do not try this at home. Maybe at work.)
The male praying mantis cannot copulate while its head is attached to its body. The female initiates sex by ripping the male's head off.
("Honey, I'm home. What the....?!")
The flea can jump 350 times its body length. It's like a human jumping the length of a football field.
(30 minutes... lucky pig. Can you imagine??)
The catfish has over 27,000 taste buds.
(What could be so tasty on the bottom of a pond?)
Some lions mate over 50 times a day.
(I still want to be a pig in my next life...quality over quantity)
Butterflies taste with their feet.
(Something I always wanted to know.)
The strongest muscle in the body is the tongue.
(Hmmmmmm........)
Right-handed people live, on average, nine years longer than left-handed people.
(If you're ambidextrous, do you split the difference?)
Elephants are the only animals that cannot jump.
(OK, so that would be a good thing....................)
A cat's urine glows under a black light.
(I wonder who was paid to figure that out?)
An ostrich's eye is bigger than its brain.
(I know some people like that.)
Starfish have no brains.
(I know some people like that too.)
Polar bears are left-handed.
(If they switch, they'll live a lot longer.)
Humans and dolphins are the only species that have sex for pleasure.
(What about that pig??)
22:45 Posted in Random Nonsense | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
Saturday, June 24, 2006
An unexpected pregnancy
It was a big shock yesterday morning as my darling screamed and called out to me.
How could something like this happen? It has never ever crossed my mind. What am I supposed to do? I have never plan for something like this.
For the whole day yesterday, my mind was filled with potential life-changing options and decisions to be made. I was at a loss and feeling pretty stressed out the whole day.
Can I finally overcome my fears, take control of the situation and move ahead a better man?
I'm glad to report that I'm feeling much better now. To take a leaf out of my darling's book, everything happens for a reason.
P.S. There better be a good reason why our two "female" rabbits can produce three little baby bunnies.
22:15 Posted in Random Nonsense | Permalink | Comments (1) | Email this
Thursday, May 04, 2006
A moment in time
01:02:03 04/05/06
Just to show that I'm still alive...
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Sunday, March 12, 2006
Coming to terms with a loss
At first, I felt lost, confused and angry with myself.
I felt despair and grief.
I felt shocked. I couldn't believe it's gone like that, just like that. Without a warning at all.
I felt like a part of me has been robbed. Killed.
I lost my fucking thumbdrive and I couldn't believe I didn't back up the data all these while. Bloody complacent. I thought the thumbdrive would be the safest place for all my intimate data. And no, I didn't have any DIY sex videos in it.
I do have some pretty cool spreadsheets in them. And it's devastating that they are gone now. And it's even sadder to find that a few spreadsheets could hit me so hard. Since when has life become so complicated? Your treasured items are not just a couple of sentimental old photos, letters and mementos, but gigabytes of pictures, spreadsheets with tons of numbers in them, your high-tech gadgets and many other things.
Right now, I'm taking this loss pretty cool. It dawned on me that I shouldn't be taking a couple of excel spreadsheets so hard. Just a bunch of numbers anyway. Am I missing the big picture of what's important in life? Your loved one next to you? Your family and friends? They are real, unlike a bunch of binary 1,0,1,0s of a spreadsheet.
Life has truly become much more complicated than before. People can't live without their cellphones, or internet, or their laptop. People prefer talking through the internet, rather than face-to-face. People prefer storing their photos digitally inside a computer, rather than print them out to display in traditional photo albums. While all these technology has enabled life to be more convenient, you can't help but be dominated by them. We're supposed to be their masters but sometimes, it seems like we're more of their slaves.
I need my thumbdrive back.
17:56 Posted in Random Nonsense | Permalink | Comments (2) | Email this
The Other Side of En Bloc Sale
Property fever is on as new condominiums are being launched or en bloc deals being announced very few other days. A house is, more often than not, measured in terms of its monetary worth, rental yield, whether it is "en bloc potential" and what have you. In this rush for capital appreciation, it is worthwhile to listen to an alternative voice...
The Straits Times Forum, Saturday, 11 Mar 2006
Hit by en bloc sale fever? Not this sad home owner
I REFER to the report, 'En bloc fever grips home owners' (ST, March 8). Sales of entire property developments or estates are indeed the rage now.
Many an owner of apartment dwellings, whether in small developments or in larger but older estates, is eager to band together with fellow owners to sell the entire property as collective sales fetch an estimated 30-50 per cent more than what individual apartments would fetch on the open market.
An entire development can be put up for collective sale when 80 per cent (90 per cent for developments less than 10 years old) of the home owners agree.
Yet not everyone within the majority may have been willing to sell, to begin with. Often, it is a few prime-movers, who have much personal interest at stake, who drive the process. They work hard at every turn, in overt or covert ways, to convince other individuals so that the mandatory figure can be reached. At times, the not-so-overt ways employed is questionable.
Collective-sale efforts generate a lot of awkwardness and tension, if not outright divisiveness and animosity among neighbours, what with the second-guessing and suspicion - which side are you on?
But should we not ask the question: are we wasting resources with all this selling and buying of large-scale properties?
Another issue to consider is the notion of 'home'. In all the excitement and rush - even panic - to launch collective-sale bids, the clear message that comes across is that the value of a 'home' is largely the monetary returns it can yield. Never mind that a home is a sanctuary for one to touch base with self and family, a retreat after a long and often hard day at work or at school.
Perhaps not every home owner attaches the same value to the property he owns. Some may own multiple properties so the secondary ones are dispensable.
But for other home owners, the property they live in is where many significant life events have taken place - marriages begun, children raised, values taught and learnt, routines established and habits formed. For this group of home owners, a collective-sale effort is both pressurising and unnerving.
There are rounds and rounds of talks, reasoning, negotiation. Sometimes there will be misunderstandings and, at times, intrigues. These all create undue pressure and an unpleasant atmosphere.
What is also unnerving is that the home that is a sanctuary can never be viewed in the same way again because a huge question mark hangs over its continued existence.
I am one such home owner, caught unwittingly in others' feverish pursuit of the en bloc sale of our property.
Perhaps I attach too much emotion to my earthly home. It is not a fancy or swanky apartment by any standard but it is a cosy nest, a nice-enough space for my family to live in and enjoy amid lots of clutter and chatter.
It is a place which I am proud to call my home, its value to me is far more than the amount that the agent keen to market my development promises me.
Unfortunately, today I find it hard to enjoy the real value of my home when others insist on putting a monetary value to it.
Perhaps it is time to have a reality check on en bloc sales.
Marie Tan (Mdm)
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Thursday, March 09, 2006
One Up Yours
First comes NUS' Graduate Employment Survey, saying that 94% of their graduates have already found jobs with the average pay being $2,500 per month. The NUS student featured in the article commands a starting pay of $5,000.
Today, February 28, 2006
Rosy report for NUS grads
WHEN it comes to employment, it seems graduates from the National University of Singapore (NUS) have it good.
According to the university's latest Graduate Employment Survey, those who graduated last year are getting jobs in less time than the previous batch — and they are receiving higher salaries and multiple job offers to boot.
The annual study revealed that 94 per cent of the graduates already have jobs. This is a 2 per cent increase over the previous year, which was a record then.
Among the 29 courses surveyed, 10 had a 100 per cent employment rate for its graduates.
The average starting pay for an NUS graduate has also increased by more than 5 per cent to $2,500 a month.
Professional degree holders now start at an average of $2,750 and non-professional degree holders start at $2,300.
Of the 3,050 survey respondents, nearly all landed jobs within six months of graduation.
An all-time high of 84 per cent of the graduates found jobs within three months.
Slightly more than one in two graduates received two or more job offers, the highest in five years.
In fact, one in 12 actually received more than four job offers.
NUS Vice-Provost for Education Professor Lily Kong attributed the rosy report to the improved economy, as well as the enhanced services of the university's Career Centre, which organises job fairs, career skills workshops, and recruitment talks.
One value-add was the overseas exposure some students received during exchange programmes and at NUS Overseas Colleges (NOCs).
Mechanical Engineering graduate Juliet Low, for example, went on the NOC programme at Silicon Valley and is now commanding a salary of $5,000 in her first job.
"I was able to hone important networking and leadership skills and learnt to adapt quickly to new situations," she said.
NUS is convinced venturing out of Singapore is the way to go.
Said Prof Kong: "These jobs require three or four years of experience but some NOC students managed to get them. We can definitely do more in this direction." — Lin Yanqin
Next comes SMU who went one up over NUS by declaring proudly that 100% of their graduates have landed a job within six month of graduation, with an average starting monthly salary of $2,500. In addition, SMU pointed out those who graduated with distinction earned an average of $3,000 a month, trumping NUS again. Last but not least, SMU told the Straits Times that 11 out of its 288 graduates who responded to the survey are pulling in between $5,000 and $10,000 a month, clearly taking the shine away from NUS' $5,000-a-month featured graduate.
Today, March 8, 2006
No job worries at SMU
100% of students find jobs within half-year of graduation
FOR the second year running, every single graduate from the Singapore Management University (SMU) has landed a job either before or within six months of their graduation.
This is according to a survey of the cohort of 337 students who graduated last year conducted by the university.
In fact, three-quarters of the graduates surveyed found jobs within a month of graduation, and more than half had already clinched jobs prior to graduating.
Forty per cent found jobs in the banking, finance, auditing and accounting sectors, while 21 per cent accepted job offers from the companies in which they had spent their internships. And even as the job market veers towards contract hiring, nine out of 10 graduates found permanent, full-time jobs.
SMU graduates earned an average starting salary of $2,500 a month, with business management graduates taking home $2,600 a month, up 5 per cent from 2004. Those who graduated with distinction earned an average of $3,000 a month.
A National University of Singapore survey of 4,000 graduates last week showed a similar starting salary. NTU will be releasing the results of their Graduate Employment Survey today.
Said SMU president Professor Howard Hunter: "The 100 per cent employment rate shows that SMU's flexible but integrated curriculum is producing a certain competence that is highly sought-after."
The graduates' versatility is also reflected in how some of their graduates are able to cross seamlessly between industries.
Ms Sarah Seow forms part of the 21 per cent of SMU's 2005 batch of accounting graduates who did not take the obvious path of signing up with an accounting firm. Instead, she joined GE Energy Asia-Pacific as a financial analyst under the company's prestigious leadership training programme, the Financial Management Programme (FMP).
She said: "Accountancy gives you valuable 'hard' skill sets. And SMU also taught me 'soft' skills like how to present and explain numbers to a layman. We didn't have our noses in books all the time."
GE Energy's finance director Steve Dwyer added that "SMU seems to be doing well" in equipping students with good communication and leadership skills. — Lin Yanqin
Not to be outdone, NTU released their employment report, trumpeting that one of their computer engineering graduate is earning an entry-level salary of $11,000 a month! Higher than those top 11 income earners of SMU who earn between $5,000 to $10,000 and clearly above the featured student of NUS who earned only $5,000 monthly. In addition, the average monthly salary earned by the rest of the graduates is $2,600, outdoing NUS and SMU. And note this, NTU did not include the $11,000 man inside the survey calculations, for fear of distorting the figures. Very yaya papaya indeed.
Today, March 9, 2006
NTU graduate lands $11,000-a-month job
TWO local universities have so far released glowing employment reports about their graduates, complete with higher starting salaries.
But beat this: An entry-level salary of $11,000 a month? That's what a Nanyang Technological University computer engineering graduate is earning as a software engineer at a multi-national corporation.
His monthly salary dwarfs the average monthly salary of $2,600 earned by the rest of the graduates — an all-time high for the university. NTU did not include his salary in their Graduate Employment Survey calculations, for fear of distorting the figures.
The 24-year-old, who declined to be named, professed to have an entrepreneurial streak and in his undergraduate days, took part in business plan competitions organised by NTU. He landed his dream job while attending a recruitment event facilitated by NTU's career service.
Mr Ian Loo, 27, a mechanical and aerospace engineering graduate, now a project analyst at Ford Motor Company in Japan, said: "Careerhub and the Office of Professional Attachments helped to make everything easier. They provided the avenues."
The survey also found that more NTU graduates found jobs within a shorter time compared to previous years. The top 20 per cent of earners for engineering graduates had an average monthly salary of more than $3,380, while business and accounting's top earners got $3,050. — Lin Yanqin
I do wonder how accurate are such surveys. First of all, graduates who haven't found a job wouldn't be very inclined to take part in the survey, isn't it? Who wants to take part to declare that you haven't find a job? Same goes for graduates who are working temporarily, or earning a low wage relatively to their peers. So in the end, you take out the low end of the spectrum, leaving just the middle to high salary earners, and you declare them to be a good representation of the entire graduate cohort. This whole survey is biased and skewed towards the high end, to begin with.
Next, I also wonder if some graduates who do take part inflate their monthly wages by including projected bonuses, overtime claims, transport allowances and what have you. I assume that there is a negligible bunch of graduates who would deflate their earnings (and ego), by reporting a lower than actual salary. So you have a bunch of proud and arrogant graduates who are more eager to inflate their income, and what results is a higher-than-actual average salary.
So do take these silly surveys with a big pinch of salt. Lastly, I wonder which company, in their right frame of mind, would pay a fresh local graduate, $11 f**king thousand a month. Either that guy is really gooooood (which I will be damn impressed with) or ... (you fill in whatever you think).
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Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Singapore Lawmakers Ask for Changes to Sex Education Classes
Picked up this piece of news report accidentally in Bloomberg. Funny stuff because it's not everyday that you have a bunch of members of parliament gathering to discuss how sex should be done in Singapore. And this is the result...
By Linus Chua
March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore lawmakers called on the government to revise sex education offered in schools amid concerns the current system is outdated.
Member of Parliament Ong Ah Heng cited an incident where a 17-year-old student filmed her sexual encounter with her boyfriend on her mobile phone. The handset was stolen and the video clip was circulated throughout Singapore, local newspapers reported. Ong is a member of the ruling People's Action Party.
With sex education in place, "we now have such events happening and I wonder whether the Ministry of Education has taught the wrong thing," Ong said in Parliament today. "With such lessons, our students seem to be going in another direction, which is contrary to the program."
Sex education is often an awkward subject for a city-state that bans Playboy magazine and other publications or films it considers pornographic, and had until about two years ago banned bar-top dancing. Still, the government has taken what Member of Parliament Eunice Olsen called a "pragmatic" approach by legalizing prostitution.
"The truth is many of our teenagers are having sex," she said. "But nowadays, it would seem youths are having sex at an earlier age. So, I think the key message in the Ministry of Education's sexuality education should be adjusted."
Olsen, a former Miss Singapore and co-host of Singapore's version of "Wheel of Fortune," pointed to the more than 2,000 teenage pregnancies in the city-state each year as a source of concern. She's a nominated member of Parliament, one of about a dozen lawmakers not elected by voters.
The government said it would strengthen the training of teachers selected for sex education, and may have smaller group discussions to reach out to students.
"Sexuality matters have become increasingly complicated in a rapidly changing world with evolving mores," Hawazi Daipi, senior parliamentary secretary at the Ministry of Education, said in Parliament.
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Tuesday, March 07, 2006
Singapore Property - Recovery, froth or bubble?
The Business Times today reported that Simon Cheong of SC Global has bought 13 freehold apartments at The Tomlinson along Cuscaden Road for about S$55 million or S$1,500 per square foot, according to sources.
In January, the same newspapers also reported that entities controlled by Simon Cheong had bought six Good Class Bungalows (GCBs) along Peirce Road for S$35 million. Man, is this guy super bullish on local property or what?
Seems like we are hearing reports of en bloc sale every few other days. This time, it is Eng Lok Mansion who was sold off for S$138 million or an amazing S$1,218 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr) last week. In fact, the freehold property along Napier Road has now officially claimed the title of being Singapore's most expensive collective sale site per unit land.
Eng Lok's price beat the previous record held by Hong Leong Group who paid S$1,122 psf ppr in 1997 to redevelop Boulevard Hotel into a condominium. It also broke the S$1,093 psf ppr that Far East Organization paid for Scotts Tower in 1997, previously the highest price fetched in a collective sale.
So what does this mean? Prices for prime district land are back to before the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis! The Sail @ Marine, Sentosa Cove and Orchard Turn, just to name a few, are all creating new positive buzz for the local property market. City Developments is launching its super-luxurious St Regis Residences condo soon, at prices as high as S$2,600 psf, setting a new benchmark for local property.
Unfortunately though, residential prices outside of the city or the other prime districts are not as hot. Many house owners are probably still reeling from the 1997-98 and 2000-2002 property meltdown which landed them in negative mortgage equity. The disparity between prime property prices and suburb property prices are getting wider and wider by the day. There have been quite a number of condo launches near the city, like in Tiong Bahru, all trying to get a piece of the action. Some obscene prices have been seen even for 99-year leasehold. And looking at how income levels have remained fairly constant along these years, I wonder how property prices could shoot up.
Most of the action are provided by the foreigners who, under the policies of the government, snapped up, not just apartments, but entire levels of a project. I guess rich locals like Simon Cheong also contributed to the sharp rise in local property prices. In addition, Singapore is actually a laggard compared to the property boom seen in Hong Kong and USA. Industry professionals like real estate analysts and property companies have been calling for a rise in Singapore property, including the broader market, but they have vested interests, remember? I can't help but wonder, are all these sustainable in the long run, without the participation of the broader local market?
Of course, I, myself, have vested interests too in wondering whether the property boom is a fluke. I have yet to own a house in the city and it's getting darn expensive by the day to do so!
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三八国际妇女节
For all women, may you have a Happy International Women's Day.
No one is quite sure why this date was chosen. In Chinese, 三八 (three eight) represents 8th March which is also The International Women's Day (三八国际妇女节).
Sometimes the term 三八 is used rather degradingly to describe noisy women. Gone are the days when women living in foreign territories inside the Shanghai Bund, were only allowed to travel outside the Bund on the 3 and 8 days of the month (ie. 3, 8, 13, 18, 23 and 28). On these days when they were allowed to explore the larger Shanghai areas normally out of their bounds, these women got rather excited and "noisy", hence the term "三八" was used to describe them.
Far from being noisy, women represent half the world's population. The other half that many men cannot live without.
Below is a wonderful poem by one of the most beautiful women in the world, Audrey Hepburn, who wrote when asked to share her "beauty tips". It was read at her funeral years later.
For attractive lips, speak words of kindness.
For lovely eyes, seek out the good in people.
For a slim figure, share your food with the hungry.
For beautiful hair, let a child run his/her fingers through it once a day.
For poise, walk with the knowledge that you never walk alone.
People, even more than things, have to be restored, renewed, revived, reclaimed, and redeemed; never throw out anyone.
Remember, if you ever need a helping hand, you will find one at the end of each of your arms.
As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands; one for helping yourself, and the other for helping others.
- Extracted from an email from a broker who always write interesting stories
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Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Heartlander = low-class and cheap
'The sense is the PA is low-class and heartlander. We want to change that,' said the chief executive director of the People's Association, Mr Tan Boon Huat.
And to kick off this news article which appeared today, the Straits Times began with this line - Mention the People's Association (PA) and out pop these adjectives: low-class, heartlander or cheap.
Which we all really know actually, the phrase "heartlander" is just a nice code word coined up to address the poor, low-class and cheap people of Singapore.
Welcome to the heartland.
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Monday, January 16, 2006
Local news today
The newspaper can be a source of humour at times. Today's Straits Times is certainly very entertaining and sometimes, bordering on being ridiculous. Let's see...
Singapore's first food centre with wireless hot spots in Tampines
Apparently, this particular hawker centre in Tampines is providing wireless hot spots where people can connect to the Internet using their laptops. I wonder if anyone will be using this service; for I know if I bring my notebook there to hook up, I will leave with a greasy notebook. I know the government is pushing for us to be like Korea, a super broadband-connected nation, but this seems a bit silly to me. The money will definitely be better spent elsewhere at this point of time.
Victims fall prey to personalised e-mail promising easy money; five people here lost $900 to $300,000 last year
What can I say? After so many years of such con jobs, from letters to email, people still fall for them. This is classic greed, combined with naviety. Sigh, who to blame? Some people still don't get that there's no free lunch in the world.
Community urged to deal with terror problem
Two emergency exercises were held in the heartland yesterday, one at Chomp Chomp and another in Bedok. Seems like terrorist attack drills are becoming the 'in' thing after Exercise Northstar V, as grassroots leaders fall over each other to organise such drills for their own community. I wonder if the craze will go on until there's actually a real attack and people still think it's just another drill, as it goes for the boy who cried wolf.
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Friday, January 13, 2006
Deal or no Deal?
Read a totally intriguing article in the AWSJ yesterday on how some economists are studying game shows in a variation of "game theory", seeking to explain the economic behaviour of normal people like you and me.
There is a game show, "Deal or No Deal", which originated from the Netherlands and is now broadcast in 38 countries. The rules are simple and requires no skills whatsoever, unlike other game shows like "Who Wants To Be a Millionaire" and "Jeopardy". It starts off with 26 briefcases. Inside each of the briefcases is cash with values of $0.01, $1, $5, $10, $25, $50, $75, $100, $200, $300, $400, $500, $750, $1,000, $5,000, $10,000, $25,000, $50,000, $75,000, $100,000, $200,000, $300,000, $400,000, $500,000, $750,000 and finally, $1,000,000. Of course, the actual values might range according to the country you're in.
Next, you choose a briefcase. Then as each round progresses, you must either stay with your original briefcase choice or make a "deal" with the bank to accept its cash offer in exchange for whatever dollar amount is in your chosen case and stop playing. Of course, the bank will always offer at a discount to the fair value.
Here's a link to a simulation game found in the U.S. version of the game. It's really pretty interesting; Kris and I had a great time playing with it, haha. The game is pretty stupid sometimes though. For example, when left with just $200,000 and $300,000 to choose from, the banker offered $177,500. I hope any one reading my blog is capable of spotting this stupidity. The discounts which the banker offered are also much larger at the beginning of the game, compared to the end, perhaps trying not to make the participant take the money and leave, hence lengthening the time of the show.
Most interesting is when you imagine you're playing the real game. If left with only two choices, $1,000,000 and $1, what is the threshold for you to take the money offered by the banker and leave? Fair value is $500,000.50, of course but how many of us can really have such a high threshold? If the banker offers $250,000 for example, will you take it? I believe most people, who have never earned $250,000 under one hour, will. All these is very interesting which really makes me want to write a thesis on it, haha. Anyway, here's the very interesting article which got me all started...
Why game shows have economists glued to their TVs
Thursday, January 12, 2006
By Charles Forelle, The Wall Street Journal
Daryl Johnson, a 27-year-old actor and freelance Web designer -- "which means I don't have a job" -- was shifting his weight nervously on the TV game show "Deal or No Deal."
After disappointing rounds that dashed Mr. Johnson's hopes of walking away a millionaire, the host, Howie Mandel, offered him $37,000 to quit. Mr. Johnson still had a one-in-five shot at winning a briefcase with $200,000 hidden inside. So he turned down the $37,000.
Later, with only a one-in-three chance left of winding up with the $200,000, Mr. Johnson was offered $67,000 to give up. He rubbed his hands. He drummed his fingers on his chest. He shook his head no. The audience hooted.
"You're very gutsy," Mr. Mandel said.
To Thierry Post, a professor of finance at Erasmus University in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, Mr. Johnson is also an invaluable subject in economics research. "His risk appetite is really abnormal," the professor says of Mr. Johnson. More precisely, he calculates, Mr. Johnson displayed a "relative-risk aversion" measure of 0.006 -- unusually, almost completely, indifferent to financial risk.
Mr. Post is part of a small, intense cadre of economists who study game shows in a variation on "game theory," seeking to explain the situational choices contestants make, and the clues those choices may hold for economic behavior in everyday life.
In a 2002 paper notable in game-show delving, two economists calculated the "unique subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium" -- roughly, the best way to play -- in a segment of "The Price Is Right." They found that contestants frequently deviated from it, acting too conservatively when worried about being eliminated.
Other shows that have been studied include "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" and "Jeopardy!" But "Deal or No Deal" has created particular excitement, in part because it involves no skill whatsoever. That reduces the variables when comparing subjects.
"There is no doubt that these are real people making real choices for high stakes, and we rarely get to observe such pure decisions," says Richard Thaler, a leading behavioral economist at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.
Economists aren't the only ones captivated by "Deal or No Deal," which originated in Holland and has been broadcast in 38 countries. The U.S. version, broadcast several times on NBC last month, will return to the air after the Olympics.
Mr. Post is studying the show to see whether it might help explain why people make irrationally risky economic decisions. He and his colleagues have recorded dozens of episodes. They've traded online with TV-show collectors around the world and have even hired Turkish-speaking students to transcribe data from Turkey's version of the show.
How risk affects financial behavior bears on such weighty matters as deciding which assets to put in an investment portfolio and how much governments should spend on social safety nets. But actual data are rare. Giving away millions of dollars to subjects of an experiment would be "hard to justify to the National Science Foundation," and others who pay for research, says Ian Walker, a professor at the University of Warwick in Coventry, England, who has studied "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire."
"Deal or No Deal" works like this: Twenty-six models each hold a briefcase that contains a sum of money -- varying from one cent to $1 million in the U.S. game. The contestant picks one briefcase as his own and then begins to open the other 25, each time, by process of elimination, revealing a little more about what his own case might hold. At the end, the contestant can also trade his briefcase for the last unopened one.
Suspense builds -- and the contestant's chance of hitting it big grows -- when small sums are eliminated and the $1 million or $750,000 cases remain unopened and winnable. Periodically, as cases are eliminated, an ominously shrouded "banker" offers a deal conveyed to the contestant by Mr. Mandel. The proposal is: Stop playing now and take the money offered.
What interests Mr. Post is how contestants respond to these offers, which are related to which dollar sums remain winnable. If the $1 million and $500,000 briefcases are left, for instance, the offer will be far higher than if they aren't.
This can create anguishing scenarios. What to do if the last two briefcases hold $1 million and $10, and the banker offers $450,000? The contestant has a 50-50 chance at a million. Probability theory says his "expected value" is the average of the two unopened briefcases, or $500,005. Classical economic theory says that people with relatively small net worth, likely never again to see a $450,000 check, would take it. Behavioral economists say that isn't always the case.
In this game, there's no trivia. No vowels to buy, no wheels to spin. Decisions involve only dollars, and contestants have just one choice at each juncture: Is it a deal or no deal? "You are a complete moron" if you don't understand the show's simple pattern, says Mr. Post, who is head of the finance department at the Erasmus School of Economics. It is thus "a dream come true for any behavioral economist."
Studying 53 episodes of the Dutch and Australian shows, Mr. Post finds that some contestants behave as the classical model predicts, locking up a sure payoff rather than risking it even with favorable odds. But others don't. The distinguishing factor, Mr. Post's data show: Players take more risks if they suffer setbacks early in the game, such as opening the million-dollar briefcase. That supports prospect theory, one of whose creators received a Nobel Prize in 2002. Prospect theory holds that people evaluate prospects for gains and losses from psychological reference points that may shift over time -- instead of seeking to maximize the "utility" they receive from money under an unvarying formula.
Zur Shapira, a psychologist at New York University's Stern School of Business, has been studying the qualifying rounds of the annual championship series in "Jeopardy!" He and a colleague, Elizabeth Boyle, calculated the best way to bet in Final Jeopardy, when players wager all, part or none of their winnings on one last question.
In the 1994 tournament of champions, contestant Tom Nichols had $8,200 going into the last round of his qualifying game and was in first place. (The winners of each qualifying game advance automatically to the next round, and the four highest scorers among the nonwinners also move on as wild cards.) Mr. Shapira's model holds that Mr. Nichols should have bet zero -- risking nothing for a solid shot at winning a wild-card slot for the next round -- instead of gambling for a win.
Balderdash, says Mr. Nichols, a political scientist who is now a professor of strategy at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. "You'd have to be a boob" to assume the $8,200 "was gonna slide you into the final game," he writes in an email. Mr. Nichols bet $6,300, and was eliminated from the tournament when he named Alexander as the last king of the Hellenes. (It was Constantine II.) "This is so painful to remember," he says. "It is seared in my memory." Had he bet nothing, Mr. Nichols would have squeaked into the next round.
In "Deal or No Deal," Mr. Mandel says, the most surprising moment so far came when Karen Van, a self-described "sexy grandma," turned down $138,000 and ended up with a $25,000 prize. Ms. Van says her husband, who was in the studio audience, egged her on.
Mr. Johnson, who turned down eight deals, was faced with an ultimate choice between two briefcases. One contained $200,000, the other $50. The banker offered $99,000 to quit. "I'm no damn fool!" Mr. Johnson exclaimed. "Deal!" In an interview, he said he had, indeed, been gambling in the earlier rounds. Still, he wasn't going to go all the way.
"Fifty dollars is a gas tank," he said.
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Thursday, January 12, 2006
In the face of death, I learned to live
This is a very thought-provoking and pretty sad article I read in Today today. Yet, it serves a timely reminder to us, how not to take things for granted, how to accept both the good and bad things in life and especially how fragile one's life is. What I always stand by is how happiness is a choice one can choose regardless of the circumstances.
There are many things in life which are beyond our control, but our emotions, our feelings, we can control. As people always say, when life hands you lemons, you make lemonade. Of course, life is never as easy as that. But the little things in life that so often piss us off, perhaps we can learn to be more tolerant. Afterall, being humans, we always pay so much attention to the lesser matters of life (like your job, the crowded morning traffic and the neighbour that makes a din), in the process, neglecting the more important things in life.
Here's the article...
TODAY - January 12, 2006
Angeline Koh
In the face of death, I learned to live
"Angel, come see this," my sister quietly called to me. I remember that day like it was only yesterday. There she sat in front of the mirror. She ran her fingers gently through her soft, black hair and bunches of it began to come off effortlessly. She had already a pile of it on the dresser. Like a wig she slowly took it off bunch by bunch. I stood there stunned, unable to utter a word.
The doctors had warned Cynthia that the day would come when she would lose her hair. The nerves in her fingers were dying.
"Without the therapy, in the worse scenario, they could just drop off," the doctor said. "Better to lose my hair than to lose my fingers!"
She was able to laugh it off some time later, but that day, Cynthia sat in front of the mirror, looked at me and said: "I'll be all right. Just leave me for a while."
She sat there and cried. I turned around, walked out of the room.
I couldn't stop the tears.
My little and only sister died on Dec 31, 2002. She was 37.
For 20 long years she had battled with Lupus, a blood disorder. She watched as the world passed her by: A friend's call to talk about her boyfriend or job promotion, a wedding invitation from a classmate, an invitation for a friend's first child's birthday.
Time stood still for her, as she lived with constant uncertainty. She had more near brushes with death than I care to remember. Lung infection, kidney infection, stroke, the list went on.
Cynthia had three sets of clothes in her wardrobe: small, medium and large. She put them on depending on the medication she was on. Some of the drugs made her lose her appetite so that she happily fitted into her "S" clothes. On those days, she walked around with a lilt, quite proud of her figure.
On other occasions, her friends could not even recognise her because she was so bloated.
I saw my sister go through seasons of deep depression, promises of healing from a new treatment or some healing service, moments of hope that quickly vaporised at another reality attack.
She eventually came to terms with her condition — not with resignation and hopelessness but with courage and determination.
The doctors said that Cynthia lived beyond the life expectancy of a Lupus patient — seven years to be precise.
Four years ago, we found out that part of her heart had already failed. She had to drop everything immediately to rest whenever she felt breathless or tired or risk having a heart attack. I spent that night alone with her after the doctor broke the news to us.
We cried together until there were no more tears to cry. That night, many things didn't seem urgent or important any more. We began to bare our hearts to one another, the two of us.
But we also began to talk about the real hope that we had in this life and the life after. And we clung on dearly to each day grateful for every day and every beat that her heart pumped.
"Remember the time when we did …" one of us would suddenly break the silence. There were so many occasions when she did things that we only later realised were a real danger to her life — even a simple thing like walking when she felt tired.
Unlike certain illnesses, the doctors were not able to say how long she would live: One day, one month, one year?
In the face of death, we talked about hope, real hope. We talked about what really was precious in life. Cynthia prepared for her funeral — her favourite songs she wanted sung, the text she wanted read.
"Please for goodness sake, don't sing THAT hymn," she pointed at one as we flipped through the hymnal.
"That sounds SO sad ... like a funeral!"
I still wonder at her sense of humour.
According to the doctor, her pulmonary heart tension measured 110 at the time of her death. The reading for a normal person is 20.
I found out only after her death that that was the rate her heart had been pumping at during the last five years of her life!
And I was with her, watching the monitor, when her heart beat went from 120 down to a complete halt.
In my grief, I have often turned my thoughts to the good memories we made together. My sister taught me by her simple faith never to take life or health or my loved ones for granted.
I learned to focus on the majors, and to not pay so much mind to the minors — what is not so important.
I learned the reality that there are many things in life that are beyond my control.
I learned to accept both the good and the hard things and to receive each one with gratitude.
I learned that happiness is a choice that I can choose regardless of the circumstances.
I learned to tell my loved ones "I love you", or to say "I'm sorry", and not wait because tomorrow may never come.
In the face of death, I learned to live life.
Angeline Koh is a reader of Today. She contributed this article after reading their story on lupus - which affects an estimated 4,000 Singaporeans. The disease causes patients to produce antibodies that attack healthy tissues instead of fighting bacteria.
22:25 Posted in Random Nonsense | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
Friday, December 30, 2005
Sunny days
As I look out of my office window in preparation to go for lunch, I can't help but notice how sunny it is. And I can't help but break out into ...
Sunny Day
Sweepin' the clouds away
On my way to where the air is sweet
Can you tell me how to get,
How to get to Sesame Street
Come and play
Everything's A-OK
Friendly neighbors there
That's where we meet
Can you tell me how to get
How to get to Sesame Street
It's a magic carpet ride
Every door will open wide
To Happy people like you--
Happy people like
What a beautiful
Sunny Day
Sweepin' the clouds away
On my way to where the air is sweet
Can you tell me how to get,
How to get to Sesame street...
How to get to Sesame Street
Singing and humming the song actually generates positive and good feelings, as if the troubles of the world are behind you. It reminds you how beautiful and happy life can be.
Happiness... Isn't it actually all inside us?
The state of happiness. Who controls it? You, or others?
14:22 Posted in Random Nonsense | Permalink | Comments (0) | Email this
Thursday, December 29, 2005
The meaning of life
Came across this interesting article in the AWSJ, so I thought I should highlight this.
Faith in Theory
Why "intelligent design" simply isn't science.
BY JAMES Q. WILSON
Monday, December 26, 2005 12:01 a.m. EST
When a federal judge in Pennsylvania struck down the efforts of a local school board to teach "intelligent design," he rightly criticized the wholly unscientific nature of that enterprise. Some people will disagree with his view, arguing that evolution is a "theory" and intelligent design is a "theory," so students should look at both theories.
But this view confuses the meaning of the word "theory." In science, a theory states a relationship between two or more things (scientists like to call them "variables") that can be tested by factual observations. We have a "theory of gravity" that predicts the speed at which two objects will fall toward one another, the path on which a satellite must travel if it is to maintain a constant distance from the earth, and the position that a moon will keep with respect to its associated planet.
This theory has been tested rigorously, so much so that we can now launch a satellite and know exactly where it must be in space in order to keep it rotating around the earth. It was not always that way. From classical times to the Middle Ages, many important thinkers thought that the speed with which an object falls toward the earth will depend on its weight. We now know that this view is false. In a vacuum, the two objects will fall at the same speed and, thanks to Newton, we know the formula with which to calculate that speed.
The other meaning of theory is the popular and not the scientific one. People use "theory" when they mean a guess, a faith or an idea. A theory in this sense does not state a testable relationship between two or more things. It is a belief that may be true, but its truth cannot be tested by scientific inquiry. One such theory is that God exists and intervenes in human life in ways that affect the outcome of human life. God may well exist, and He may well help people overcome problems or even (if we believe certain athletes) determine the outcome of a game. But that theory cannot be tested. There is no way anyone has found that we can prove empirically that God exists or that His action has affected some human life. If such a test could be found, the scientist who executed it would overnight become a hero.
***
Evolution is a theory in the scientific sense. It has been tested repeatedly by examining the remains of now-extinct creatures to see how one species has emerged to replace another. Even today we can see some kinds of evolution at work, as when scholars watch how birds on the Galapagos Islands adapt their beak size from generation to generation to the food supplies they encounter.
The theory of evolution has not been proved as fully as the theory of gravity. There are many gaps in what we know about prehistoric creatures. But all that we have learned is consistent with the view that the creatures we encounter today had ancestors from which they evolved. This view, which is literally the only scientific defensible theory of the origin of species, does not by any means rule out the idea that God exists.
What existed before the Big Bang created the universe? Is there an afterlife of heaven (or hell) that awaits us after we die? Can a faith in God change our lives because of how God acts toward us? There are religious scientists who believe that God exists and operates on us today and there are scientists who reject the idea of God and his benign interventions.
Isaac Newton was a deeply religious man. No doubt he thought that the Newtonian laws he discovered existed because of God's handiwork. Charles Darwin, though he started his adult life as a deep believer and a student intending to enter the ministry, abandoned any belief that God has created animal species and replaced that view with his extraordinary, and largely correct, theory of evolution.
Proponents of intelligent design respond by saying that there are some things in the natural world that are so complex that they could not have been created by "accident." They often use the mousetrap as a simile. We can have all of the parts of a trap--a board, a spring, a clamp--but it will not be a mousetrap unless someone assembles it. The assembler is the "intelligent designer."
But since mousetraps are not created by nature but are manufactured by people, we must ask them what part of natural life is so irreducibly complex that it could not have evolved? Some have suggested that the human eye is an example. But the eye has been studied for decades in ways strongly suggesting that it has evolved. At first there were light-sensitive plates in prehistoric creatures that enabled them to move toward and away from illumination. For a few animals, these light-sensitive plates were more precise. This was the result of genetic differences: Just as a (very) few people today can see a baseball as well as Ted Williams could, so then some creatures were able not only to detect light but to see shapes or colors in the light.
When those talented creatures lived in a world that rewarded such precision, they reproduced and untalented creatures died out. Maybe the talented ones were better able to find food or avoid being eaten and the untalented ones could not. These first steps were followed, over millions of years, by more adaptations so that genetic accidents that made it possible for some creatures to see very tiny objects or see at great distances had an evolutionary advantage over ones that could not do these things.
But if an intelligent designer had created the human eye, He (or She) made some big mistakes. The eye has a blind spot in the middle that reduces the eye's capacity to see. Other creatures, more dependent on sharp eyesight than are we, do not have this blind spot. Some people are colorblind and others must start wearing glasses when they are small children. All of these variations and shortcomings are consistent with evolution. None is consistent with the view that the eye was designed by an intelligent being.
***
What schools should do is teach evolution emphasizing both its successes and its still unexplained limitations. Evolution, like almost every scientific theory, has some problems. But they are not the kinds of problems that can be solved by assuming that an intelligent designer (whom ID advocates will tell you privately is God) created life. There is not a shred of evidence to support this theory, one that has been around since the critics of Darwin began writing in the 19th century.
Some people w